Find out the way that the bookies calculate the odds value

By using the Odds Compiler Platform, it' becomes very easy to understand the way that the bookies calculate and offer the prices for every betting market of the game. Except the match odds (1-2-X) where it is needed to take into concideration a few more parameters (cards, injuries, etc), the prices of all other betting markets are based on statistics.

We will try to present you, how you can compile your own odds and then in comparison to bookies offered prices, to understand
 

  1. if the price that is offered is "real" or not
  2. if there is any hidden value price in any of the offered betting markets

We will use the forthcoming game in Ligue 1 - France, Saint Etienne vs Olympique Marseilles. The average bookies price set for match odds (pre-game mode) is

Market 1 (Home win) : 1.91
Market 2 (Away win) : 4.50
Market X (Draw) : 3.50

Using Odds Compiler Platform, we will try to find out how the bookies calculated the above prices. Odds Compiler uses database with more than 110.000 data records and the database is updated daily. For France's Ligue 1, there is data since 2006-2007 season and up to date.

Assumptions:
  1. First of all, we have to decide the number of the data sample that we will use for our calculations. Let's assume that we will use data from the last two seasons (2011-2012 and 2012-2013 - fig 1).
  2. We select the correct game and we select one team as home (Saint Etienne) and the other as Away (Olympique Marseilles). (fig1)
  3. The correct score must be 0-0 and the elapsed time also 0min. (fig 1)
  4. The selection Full Time must be selected, so to calculate the match odds up to the end of the game

All the above assumptions are only for the Pre-Game mode

Figure 1: Find out the way bookies compiling odds

Figure 1

Our compiled match odds are
Market 1 (Home win) : 2.15
Market 2 (Away win) : 3.17
Market X (Draw) : 4.56

Data sample : 73 matches, Saint Etienne 37 as home and Marseilles 37 as away. The games between the specific teams are not calculated.

In comparison to bookies offered prices for match odds, the results are:

Market 1: Bookies offer lower price than the statistic value of the market. (-11.16%)
Market 2: Bookies offer higher price than the statistic value of the market. There is value +41.95%
Market X : Bookies offer lower price than the statistic value of the market (-23.24%)

Using a different data sample (only current season 2012-2013) then we will have the results shown in figure 2

Using the odds compiler tool
Figure 2

Our compiled match odds are
Market 1 (Home win) : 2.40
Market 2 (Away win) : 2.77
Market X (Draw) : 4.5

Data sample : 36 matches, Saint Etienne 18 as home and Marseilles 18 as away. The games between the specific teams are not calculated.

In comparison to bookies offered prices for match odds, the results are:
Market 1: Bookies offer lower price than the statistic value of the market. (-20.41%)
Market 2: Bookies offer higher price than the statistic value of the market. There is value +62.45%
Market X : Bookies offer lower price than the statistic value of the market (-22.22%)

Also we have the option to use the current form of the teams in order to calculate the match odds prices. From the menu Period, we select the specific time period (from 1/4/2013 up to 14/5/2013) that includes the last 6 games of each team. Figure 3 is shown the new calculated odds

Analytic match odds based on historical data
Figure 3

Our compiled match odds are
Market 1 (Home win) : 1.71
Market 2 (Away win) : 12.00
Market X (Draw) : 3.0

Data sample : 12 matches, Saint Etienne 6 as home/away form and Marseilles 6 as home/away. The difference is that we selected as option All matches as Home&Away for both teams.

In comparison to bookies offered prices for match odds, the results are:
Market 1: Bookies offer Higher price than the statistic value of the market. There is value (+11.69%)
Market 2: Bookies offer lower price than the statistic value of the market.  (-62.50%)
Market X : Bookies offer higher price than the statistic value of the market There is value (+16.66%)

From the above analysis, Saint Etienne is favourite  with odds price range between 1,71 - 2.40, depending on the data sample.

We can do the same with the Half Time odds prices for 12X, as it is shown in figure 4. We must select the option Half Time instead of Full Time.

Half time odds market
Figure 4

Also, with the above analysis, you can compile the odds for more betting markets such as

Full Time Under1.5 / Full Time Under2.5 / Full Time Under3.5 / Full Time Under4.5
Half Time Under1.5 / Half Time Under2.5 / Half Time Under3.5 / Half Time Under4.5


and the odds prices for any exact score of the specific game (figure 5 & figure 6)

Analytic market statistics
Figure 5

Game statistics tool
Figure 6