We will present a step by step analysis for odds prediction of market (1), (2), (X), Under 2.5 & Under 1.5 for the game of Auxerre v Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) on 15-04-2012. The analysis includes predictions from the commercial online software Odds Compiler by www.betpractice.com, based on historical time goal data scored from the above teams.
It is assumed, that the reader is familiar with software components and procedures. It is very important to mention that the probability and odds predictions of the program are based only on historical goal data, without any reference in other game factors (players, red cards etc) that may affect the result of the game. Therefore, it is suggested to use odds predictions only as reference values, which need further readjustment according to other factors (players, red cards etc) as has been mentioned above.
2. Odds Analysis
The aim of this article is to analyse:
- The odds compiling for markets (1), (2), (X), Under 1.5 & Under 2.5
- The payout profit of odds prices as given from exchange markets, compared with the predicted values as given from previous historical goal data.
- The predicted odds fluctuations during the game for Under 1.5 & 2.5 markets.
Table 1 includes the odds prices offered by Betfair exchange market and William Hill bookmaker, compared with the predicted odds values as given from Odds Compiler. odds predictions are given through two different ways according to data sampling “Away” & “Home-Away” and two different seasons “2011-2012” and “2010-2012”. When there is a favourite team, as is PSG, one way to predict the odds is to make the calculations assuming only the data from this team. Sampling as “Away” means that the program collects historical data of all matches played only by PSG and “Home-Away” sampling, assumes data from all separated matches played by Auxerre as home and PSG as away.
Table 1: odds predictions according to different Historical Data Sampling
odds prediction for team (1) gives a value between 3.17 to 4.29. Historical data from season 2010-2011 estimated to produce more reliable predictions. As a conclusion a price value close to 3.17-3.36 assumed to be more realistic.
Predictions for PSG show higher odds values than Betfair and WH. It seems that betting for PSG to win is not as possible as betting market believes. Assuming data sampling only from matches played by PSG as “away” during season 2011-2012, odds prediction is 2.14, but assuming games played by Auxerre as “Home” gives a higher value 4.19. In our opinion a value more than 3.00 is assumed to be a realistic price.
All the calculation for the draw gives a lower odds value than market does. Maybe it is a great chance to bet for the draw, because you buy in a high price (3.90) for an event, which is more possible to happen. A value about 2.50-3.00 seems to be a realistic price.
A selection of the more possible scores of the game is presented in table 2. Score (1-1) shows probability 17.65%-22.39%, with estimated odds 4.47-5.67. Scores (2-2) and (0-1) follows as more possible with probability 13.43% and 8.96% respectively.
Table 2: odds predictions and Probability for more possible Scores
Tables 3 and 4 present the odds fluctuations (reduction) for Under 1.5 and Under 2.5 respectively during the game, assuming that there is no score 0-0). Data sampling has been selected as “Home-Away” from season 2010-2012, in order to include a more reliable data sample.
Table 3: odds predictions for Under 1.5 during the game
Table 4:odds predictions for Under 2.5 during the game
Table 5 includes a different prediction for odds fluctuations of Under 2.5 for the first 20min, assuming a data sample from 2006 to 2012.
Table 5: odds predictions for Under 2.5 for the first 20min of the game
As a conclusion, the analysis of the historical goal data from Auxerre and PSG showed the following:
- Draw is the more possible event with a predicted odds value 2.50-3.00. It seems to be a good opportunity to bet for the draw, because Βetfair and WH offers in a higher price (3.90).
- Scores (1-1), (2-2) & (0-1) seems more possible with predicted odds 4.47, 7.45 & 11.16 respectively.
- Odds prediction for Under 1.5 & Under 2.5 is 5.15 and 1.56-1.86 respectively. The game is more possible to end Under 2.5.