Full Time Real Probabilities using Next Goal Predictor

Next Goal Predictor is an online tool for more demanding users who want to compile their own in-play real probabilities, based on their own methodology:

  • FTime probabilities to remain with current total goals (e.g. with 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc)
  • FTime probabilities to have more than current total goals (e.g. more than 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc)
  • FTime probabilities to have total current total goals (e.g. to have total 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc) 

We use a data sample for both teams that consists of data from the last four (4) football seasons and data from the current season. Once each team has played more than ten (10) games in the current season, we drop the data from four years ago and only use data from the current and the last three (3) seasons.

You have chosen to bet live on the game Burnley vs Ipswich Town.  Also, for our example, the game has just kicked off and the exact score is 0-0. We want to bet for Full Time:

  • to remain with current goals ( no goal to be scored up to 90min)
  • to have more than current goals (one or more goals to be scored in total)
  • to have exactly 1 goal
  • to have exactly 2 goals
  • to have more than 2 goals in total

As a user, you must Select:

  • The Historical database  (the number of past seasons data records) [Indicator 1]
  • The game [Indicator 2]
  • The Filter of data sample( One team as Home and the other as Away) [Indicator 2]

Also you must insert:

  • the elapsed time of the game [Indicator 5]
  • the current total number of goals of the game [Indicator 4]

current total number of goals of the game

 

You get the following in-play real probabilities for the FTime: 

  • to remain with 0 goals ( no goal to be scored up to 90min) : 8.33%
  • to have more than 0 goals (one or more goals to be scored in total): 91.67%
  • to have total 1 goal: 17.78%
  • to have total 2 goals: 31.67%
  • to have more than 2 goals: 42.22%

From the above, the most possible total number of goals are less than 2. If you sum

Prob (remain with 0 goals) + Prob (have total 1 goal) + Prob (have total 2 goals) = Under2.5 = 57.78%

You can change the elapsed time accordingly to the real time of the game and you can get different in-play real probabilities, depending on the time and the total number of goals that you have inserted in Next Goal Predictor.