Full Time Over and Under Real Probabilities using Next Goal Predictor online tool

Next Goal Predictor is an online tool for more demanding users who want to compile their own in-play real probabilities, based on their own methodology:

• FTime probabilities to remain with current total goals (e.g. with 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc)
• FTime probabilities to have more than current total goals (e.g. more than 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc)
• FTime probabilities to have total current total goals (e.g. to have total 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc)

We use a data sample for both teams that consists of data from the last four (4) football seasons and data from the current season. Once each team has played more than ten (10) games in the current season, we drop the data from four years ago and only use data from the current and the last three (3) seasons.

You have chosen to bet live on the game Burnley vs Ipswich Town.  Also, for our example, the game is at elapse time 23min and the total number of goals is 0 (exact score is still 0-0). We want to bet for Full Time:

• Over0.5 / Under0.5 Full Time Period
• Over1.5 / Under1.5 Full Time Period
• Over2.5 / Under2.5 Full Time Period
• Over3.5 / Under3.5 Full Time Period
• Over4.5 / Under4.5 Full Time Period

As a user, you must Select:

• The Historical database  (the number of past seasons data records) [Indicator 1]
• The game [Indicator 2]
• The Filter of data sample( One team as Home and the other as Away) [Indicator 2]

Also you must insert:

• the elapse time of the game [Indicator 5]
• the current total number of goals of the game [Indicator 4]

You get the following in-play real probabilities for the FTime Over / Under markets:

• Under0.5 Full Time Period : Probability to remain with 0 goals = 14.42%
• Over0.5 Full Time Period : Probability to have more than 0 goals = 85.58%
• Over1.5 Full Time Period: Probability to have total 2 goals + Probability to have more than 2 goals = 34.62% + 25.96% = 60.58%
• Under1.5 Full Time Period: Probability to remain with 0 goals + Probability to have total 1 goal = 14.42% + 25.00% = 39.42%
• Over2.5 Full Time Period: Probability to have more than 2 goals = 25.96%
• Under2.5 Full Time Period: Probability to remain with 0 goals + Probability to have total 1 goal + Probability to have total 2 goals = 14.42% + 25.00% + 34.62% = 74.04%

For the rest of the markets Over / Under, by changing the total number of goals during the in-play mode and using the above methodology, you can get real probabilities for

• Over3.5 / Under3.5 Full Time Period
• Over4.5 / Under4.5 Full Time Period

You have choose to bet live on the game Burnley vs Ipswich Town.  Also, for our example above, the game is at elapsed time 32min, the total number of goals is 2. We want to bet for Full Time:

• Over3.5 Full Time Period: Probability to have total 4 goals + Probability to have more than 4 goals = 32.14% + 35.71% = 67.85%
• Under3.5 Full Time Period: Probability to remain with 2 goals + Probability to have total 3 goals = 7.14% + 25.00% = 32.14%
• Over4.5 Full Time Period: Probability to have more than 4 goals = 35.71%
• Under4.5 Full Time Period: Probability to remain with 2 goals + Probability to have total 3 goals + Probability to have total 4 goals = 7.14% + 25.00% + 32.14% = 64.28%

You can change the elapsed time accordingly to the real time of the game and you can get different in-play real probabilities, depending on the time and the total number of goals that you have inserted in Next Goal Predictor.