Football betting in Betfair Exchange market is one of my favorite interests. I have used many techniques like:
1) back/lay arbitrage in Under 2.5 market at the first 10÷15min of a football game,
2) lay the draw and then back the draw after the first goal etc.
The main problem that I have always, is the lack of statistical predictions between time intervals (trading periods) of a football game.
Although, trading techniques are applicable between time intervals of 1min, 2min or 5min during a game, football statistics are usually related to the result of the game. It was always a “blind date” for me to bet from 20min to 25min during a football game, without knowing the probability for the current score of the match to change or not, during this time period.
In betpractice team, we try hard to improve betfair trading with advanced score predictions during the game. Odds Compiler Platform advanced software version, is a very interesting application for traders because it calculates predictions based on a database with remarkable number of historical goal data.
Football betting in Betfair Exchange market example
I will try to give you an example by using a virtual score scenario for a game between FULHAM and NORWICH CITY of Premier League, assuming that the score is (0-1) at Elapsed Time (E.T.) of 22min.
Figure 1, shows the predictions for such a case at Odds Compiler Platform tool. I select historical data from seasons 2009-2010 & 2010-2011 & 2011-2012, in order to have a remarkable sample of recent data for my prediction. The combination that I choose is FULHAM as «Ηome» and respectively NORWICH CITY as «Away». The output of the calculation of the database is 75 played matches. By placing Score 0-1 / Elapsed Time 22 the program's output is that 13 of the 75 matches is according with this scenario. For those who are not convinced yet, just click the corresponding link (13) and get all historical data of matches with (0-1) until 22min, as it is shown in figure 2.
Figure 1: Odds Compiler Platform menu assuming Score (0-1) at 22min and search predictions until 25min (Data from 2009 to 2012)
By placing «Search Time Αt» 25min, the output results are amazing. The probability for score (0-1) to remain until 25min is 100%, because the 13 matches remained with score (0-1) from 22min to 25min. For a trader, this is a marvellous chance to place a Back bet (Under 2.5, Under 1.5 etc) at 22min as an entry point and place a Lay bet at 25min as an exit point of trading.
I decided to add more historical data from season 2006-2007 until season 2011-2012, in order to have a reliable sample based on a huge amount of data, as it is shown in Figure 3. The program founded 23 of 132 matches matched with Score (0-1) at 22min. From period 22min to 25min only in 2 of 23 matches the score became (1-1). Again, trading has 91% probability to succeed.
As a conclusion, in Betpractice Team we do not use complicated football statistics methods, but only pure historical statistics. We give the opportunity to a Trader / or a Gambler to practice by himself with time intervals, data seasons etc. We do not know who is going to win, but we look back at the history of football results.