Pre-game betting is a very interesting area for profitable investments without remarkable uncertainties, because the fluctuations of the odds are very small during the pre-game period.
A well known pre-game trading method in Betfair Exchange market is the back to lay in Under 2.5 market. A couple of days before the game the price of Under 2.5 may have an odds value that would start to decrease as we are getting closer to game day (figure 1).
This is the case for an trading by placing a back bet couple of days before the game as an entry point and then placing a lay bet 10min before the game starts as an exit point of trading. The question is how to recognize which is the appropriate odds value of Under 2.5 market that will start to decrease, as we get closer to the game.
Figure 1: Under 2.5 odd decrease as we get closer to the game
2. Prediction of Trend
A simple but very effective rule to recognize fluctuations for Under 2.5 market is to predict the odd between the two teams by using pure historical records using TimeStat Software and then compare this predicted value with the corresponding value of Betfair exchange market.
Let’s assume that an Under 2.5 market for a football game that starts on Sunday, has a back value in betfair exchange market equals to “Under 2.5”=1.80 on Tuesday (five days before kick-off). If by using TimeStat Software, we predict a value for Under 2.5 equals to 1.60 that probably means Betfair value will start to decrease, as we get closer to game day.
Odds value is correlated with probability of the event with the rule:
O(x) =1 / P
O(x) : Odd value for the event
P : Probability of the event
Table 1 shows the above assumption comparing bookies or exchange market odd
Table 1: Rules for recognize profitable betting or Pre-game trading
Again, this may be a chance for a pre-game trading by placing a lay bet as an entry point a couple of days before the game and then placing a back bet a couple of minutes before the game as an exit point of trading.
A simple but very effective rule to recognize fluctuations for Under 2.5 market is to compare bookmakers' odds with predicted odds from TimeStat software. The difference between these values makes sense for placing or not a bet or to start trading before the game. When OB > OP the predicted probability for the event to happened is higher than the assumed probability related to bookies price and when