Compile odds for the popular betting markets

In this meticulous article, we present how easy it is to compile your own odds and probabilities during a game, by using Odds Compiler Platform. Odds Compiler uses a database with more than 145.000 data records, which is updated daily. For France Ligue 1, there is data since 2006-2007 season and up to date.

We will use the game of Ligue 1 - France, Saint Etienne vs Olympique Marseilles.
 

Assumptions:

  1. First of all, we have to decide the data sample that we will use for our calculations. Let's assume that we will use data from the last two seasons (2011-2012 and 2012-2013 - fig 1).
  2. We select the correct game and we select one team as Home (Saint Etienne) and the other as Away (Olympique Marseilles). (fig1)
  3. The correct score must be 0-0 and the elapsed time also 0min. (fig 1)
  4. The selection Full Time must be selected, in order to calculate the match odds until the end of the game


All the above assumptions is only for the Pre-Game mode

Betting Odds and probabilities
Figure 1. Odds and probabilities at elapse time 0min of the game (Pre-game mode)

Our compiled match odds are
Market 1 (Home win) : 2.15
Market 2 (Away win) : 3.17
Market X (Draw) : 4.56

Data sample : 73 matches, Saint Etienne 37 as home and Marseilles 37 as away. The games between the specific teams are not calculated.

Let's assume that after the kick-off of the game and at elapsed time 10min, there is no score (0-0). By inserting the correct data in Odds Compiler Platform such as

  1. Elapsed time: 10min
  2. Correct score : 0-0
  3. Full Time mode

Full Time mode

Figure 2. Full Time Odds and probabilities at elapse time 10min of the game (In-Play mode)

Our new compiled match odds at elapse time 10min of the game are
Market 1 (Home win) : 2.26
Market 2 (Away win) : 2.90
Market X (Draw) : 4.69

Data sample (remains the same as pre-game mode): 73 matches, Saint Etienne 37 as home and Marseilles 37 as away. The games between the specific teams are not calculated. Also, you can see that at elapse time 10min of the game, found 61 matches of a total of 73 with no score (0-0) at 10min.

Keep in mind, that you can change the data sample any time during the game, according to what you think is closer to reality.

Our proposals to everyone are the following:

  • The data sample that we pick for pre-game compiling of the odds, must be kept after the kick-off of the game, until the time of the first goal to be scored
  • Change the data sample after first goal of any team. You have to select all available data in order to compile the odds and the probabilities after the first goal.


By changing the mode from Full Time to Half Time mode at elapse time 10min with no score (0-0), you have the odds and the probabilities up to 45min of the game

Half Time Odds and probabilities
Figure 3. Half Time Odds and probabilities at elapse time 10min of the game (In-Play mode)

Our new compiled match odds at elapse time 10min of the game are
Market 1 (Home win) : 4.07
Market 2 (Away win) : 5.08
Market X (Draw) : 1.79

Data sample (remains the same as pre-game mode): 73 matches, Saint Etienne 37 as home and Marseilles 37 as away. The games between the specific teams are not calculated. Also, you can see that at elapse time 10min of the game, found 61 matches of a total of 73 with no score (0-0) at 10min.

After a while, at elapse time 16min of the game, Saint-Etienne scores the first goal and the score now is 1-0. By inserting the correct data in Odds Compiler Platform such as

  1. Elapsed time: 16min
  2. Correct score : 1-0
  3. Full Time mode


Full Time Odds and probabilities
Figure 4. Full Time Odds and probabilities at elapse time 16min of the game (In-Play mode)

Our new compiled match odds at elapse time 16min of the game with score 1-0 are
Market 1 (Home win) : 1.42
Market 2 (Away win) : 4.63
Market X (Draw) : 12.33

Data sample: 258 matches, Saint Etienne 132 as home and Marseilles 132 as away. The games between the specific teams are not calculated. Also, you can see that at elapse time 16min of the game, with score 1-0, found 37 matches out of a total of 258 with the score 1-0 at 16min. As you can see, we choose all data in order to compile the new odds after the first goal.

By changing the mode from Full Time to Half Time mode at elapse time 16min with score 1-0, you have the odds and the probabilities up to 45min of the game

Half Time Odds and probabilities
Figure 5. Half Time Odds and probabilities at elapse time 16min of the game (In-Play mode)

Our new compiled match odds at elapse time 16min of the game are
Market 1 (Home win) : 1.19
Market 2 (Away win) : 37.04
Market X (Draw) : 7.40

Data sample (remains the same): 258 matches, Saint Etienne 132 as home and Marseilles 132 as away. The games between the specific teams are not calculated. Also, you can see that at elapse time 16min of the game, found 37 matches out of a total of 258 with the score 1-0 at 16min.

At elapse time 24min of the game with score to remain 1-0, then the new odds and probabilities are

Full Time Odds and probabilities at elapse time 
Figure 6. Full Time Odds and probabilities at elapse time 24min of the game (In-Play mode)

Our new compiled match odds at elapse time 24min of the game with score 1-0 are
Market 1 (Home win) : 1.38
Market 2 (Away win) : 5.88
Market X (Draw) : 9.40

Data sample: 258 matches, Saint Etienne 132 as home and Marseilles 132 as away. The games between the specific teams are not calculated. Also, you can see that at elapse time 24min of the game, with score 1-0,  found 47 matches out of a total of 258 with the score 1-0 at 24min. As you can see, we choose all data in order to compile the new odds after the first goal.

By changing the mode from Full Time to Half Time mode at elapse time 24min with score 1-0, you have the odds and the probabilities up to 45min of the game

Half Time Odds and probabilities
Figure 7. Half Time Odds and probabilities at elapse time 24min of the game (In-Play mode)

Our new compiled match odds at elapse time 24min of the game are
Market 1 (Home win) : 1.12
Market 2 (Away win) : 46.95
Market X (Draw) : 11.75

Data sample (remains the same): 258 matches, Saint Etienne 132 as home and Marseilles 132 as away. The games between the specific teams are not calculated. Also, you can see that at elapse time 24min of the game, found 47 matches out of a total of 258 that the score was 1-0 at 24min.