FIRST GOAL STATISTICS

FIRST GOAL STATISTICS
Score 0-0 to remain up to first 15min

Statistic analysis and comparison

of the last two seasons

ENGLAND - PREMIER LEAGUE

By NEXTGOAL Predictor Software

1. General

A well known trading in Betfair Exchange market is the back/lay arbitrage for the score 0-0 to remain at the first 10÷15min of a football game. There raises the question of which is the probability of a goal being scored during the first 15min of a game.

Additionally, which are the best time intervals during a football game for making a short term trading? Next Goal Predictor online software can make such calculations using previous historical goal data. The user has the opportunity to select time intervals of a game, so as to have probabilities for the score status.

It is assumed, that the reader is familiar with software components and procedures. It is very important to mention that probabilities are based only in historical goal data, without any reference to other game factors - such as players, red cards, etc - that may also affect the result of the game. Therefore, it is suggested to use the results only as reference values that account for further readjustment according to other factors  as mentioned above.

2. Statistical analysis of first goal and comparison to the last two seasons (2011-2012 & 2012-2013)

The scope of the analysis will be to find out and to compare the probabilities for the score (0-0) to remain or to change during the first 15 min of the game.

The results of such a calculation are shown below. The analysis included all matches played in season 2011-2012 and 2012-2013.

Probabilities for first goal

Figure 1. Probabilities for first goal up to 15min - Season 2011-2012

in comparison to season 2011-2012

Figure 2. Probabilities for first goal up to 15min - Season 2012-2013

From the Figures 1&2, it's easy to understand that in season 2012-2013 in comparison to season 2011-2012

  • The probability to remain with 0 goals up to 15min of a game in Premier League is -2.59%
  • The probability to have more than 0 goals up to 15min of a game in Premier League is +6.45%
  • The probability to have total 1 goal up to 15min of a game in Premier League is +13.65%
  • The probability to have total 2 goals up to 15min of a game in Premier League is -17.67%
  • The probability to have more than 2 goals up to 15min of a game in Premier League is -49.52%

For a trader, placing an arbitrage bet for score to remain 0-0 up to the first 15min of the game in season 2012-2013 was more risky 2.59%. An arbitrage bet for market Under1.5 at the first 15min of a game was more safe +13.65% but the market Under2.5 was less safe -17.67%.

We can proceed with an in-depth analysis in order to find out and to compare the probabilities for the score (0-0) to remain or to change inside time intervals of 5min during the first 15 min of the game.

The results of such a calculation are shown below. The analysis included all matches played in season 2011-2012 and 2012-2013.

first goal 0-5min - SeasonThe results of such a calculation

Figure 3. first goal 0-5min - Season 2011-2012                                       Figure 4. first goal 0-5min - Season 2012-2013

An important result is that the arbitrage bet on market Under2.5 is 100% safe in both seasons.

first goal 6-10min - Seasonresult is that the arbitrage bet on market Under2.5

Figure 5. first goal 6-10min - Season 2011-2012                                Figure 6. first goal 6-10min - Season 2012-2013

As you can see, the probability for Under2.5 is still 100% safe from 6-10min.

probability for Under2.5first goal 11-15min - Season 2012-2013
Figure 7. first goal 11-15min - Season 2011-2012                            Figure 8. first goal 11-15min - Season 2012-2013

As you can see, the probability for Under2.5 is still 100% safe.

Taking into account the results, the best Trading has to be done between 11÷15min for season 2012-2013 and 0÷5min for season 2011-2012. These time intervals during the game show the less probability of the existing score 0-0 to change.

On the other hand, time intervals between 6-10min (2012-2013) and 11÷15min (2011-2012) show a high change-of-score probability (above 10%).

Then rises the question of the betting strategies that have to be followed, if there is a goal during this trading period, NextGoal Predictor software offers the tools to model such a case. A complete trading modeling has to assume that a goal is scored during the trading period. So, when a goal is scored during trading time interval, trading has to continue for at least 20min more.