4b.2 Long Term Betting Theory
Having already defined the two main parameters of value and yield we are now ready to explain the theory of long term betting.
Long term betting is based on a careful selection of betting in a regular base that gives a positive yield in a long term of months.
The theory is based in three main concepts which are:
Assumptions of the system
Stability (Yield – Success rate) in repeated seasons
Assumptions of betting system:
Assumptions of betting system are based on:
Select bets with the appropriate minimum and maximum limit of probability according to betting market.
You must choose bets with different probability of success and not necessarily the bets with the highest probability because these bets may have a negative value.
Select bets with the appropriate value according to the selected bookmaker. If you select values close to 1.00 that means you select bets with probabilities close to bookmakers probability. If you select values with negative prices, that means you select bets that calculated probability is lower than bookmakers probability.
Eg. A system may include bets with probability 50% to 55% with a value>5%.
When you define the assumptions of the betting system you have to check if there is a positive yield in a long term periods of months.
For a system:
Eng League One, Under 2.5, Aug 2014 to Sep 2014, Prob 60% to 100%, Value -1000 to +1000
The yield is 19.25% based on Betfair Exchange.
That means if you have followed this system from Aug 2014 and Sep 2014 you would have won 19.25% of your initial stake.
With the term stability we define if the positive yield of a betting system remains stable at the same periods of different seasons.
Eg. At the table below there is a system:
Eng League One, Under 2.5, Prob 60% to 100%, Value -1000 to +1000
Period Aug 2014 to Sep 2014
Period Aug 2015 to Sep 2015
At period Aug 2014 to Sep 2014 yield was 19.25% and success rate was 66.67%
At period Aug 2015 to Sep 2015 yield was 4.47% and success rate was 56.67%
Yield Stability has a decrease from 19.25% to 4.47%.
Success Stability has a decrease from 66.67% to 56.67%.
Yield and success stability were not so stable for the above betting system.
Closing this lesson, to success at long term betting you need an advanced tool to make all available calculations to find a profitable betting system.
At next lessons there is a detailed presentation of the Platform System Hunter that finds betting systems for long term profit.