Understanding football betting odds is important1. Chance: A chance is the likelihood of a certain event happening. It is often expressed in percentages, also referred to as the probability.
Rolling a dice yields a probability of 1 out of 6 for each outcome. The chance of the dice landing on any of the 6 numbers is equal. In percentages this means a 16.66% chance (or probability) of any of the six numbers to coming up (Simply by dividing 100% by the 6 possible outcomes).
2. Decimal Odds: are simply inverted probabilities, which is why it is so easy to calculate with them.
Instead of saying an outcome has a probability of X%, X is now translated into a number.
100% divided by Chance = (100% / Chance) = The Odds.
If you expect the probability of a team winning a football match to be 40%, it would look like this is in decimal odds: 100% / 40% = 2.50
Odds expressed in this way are known as decimal odds or European odds. For every unit you bet on the outcome you receive a return of 2.50 should you win. Once you subtract the unit you invested, it leaves you with a profit of 1.50.
3. Fractional odds: another way of expressing odds, mainly used in the UK.
To use the previous example of decimal odds 2.50, fractional odds would express the probability as
6/4 (or 3/2 or 1.5/1): You have to bet 1 to win 1.50 profit.
A common error is to assume that 2.50 decimal odds should be 2.5/1, but this is wrong. Fractional odds calculate your net profit rather than your total return of a bet, which is why the stake itself (which equals 1) is being factored in below the fractional line.
Odds of 3/2 reads as 3 to 2, which means you have to wager 2 units to win 3 units.
You can convert fractional odds to decimal odds simply by working out the fraction:
(6 / 4) + 1 = 2.50 Or (6 + 4) / 4 = 10 / 4 = 2.50
4. US Odds: they are either positive or negative (for example - 150 or + 150).
Negative odds will show you how much you will have to stake in order to achieve a profit of 100 units. If a team is represented with odds of – 150, it means you will have to stake 150 units to get a 100 units profit.
Following an example of how to convert negative American odds into their decimal equivalent.
American odds: -150.
Decimal Odds = (100/150) + 1 = 1.67
Positive odds will show you how much profit you will have if you stake 100 units. If a team is presented with odds + 150 you will have 150 units profit for a stake of 100 units.
Following an example of how to convert positive American odds into their decimal equivalent.
American odds: +150
Decimal Odds = (+150/100) + 1 = 2.50
5. Implied Probability: Betting odds express a probability or chance of an outcome occurring, known as the 'implied probability'.
Decimal odds: 2.50
Implied Probability = 100% / 2.50 = 40%