Getafe vs Malaga

La Liga on 18/09/2015

Sportsbook: William Hill

Market Category: Goal Time

 

Live betting in William Hill for the market "Match Goal - 1rst To 15th min", using Next Goal.

Analysis of the market and how to find the exact moment during the game where it is most likely to hit.

The specific market is shown below

Getafe vs Malaga William Hill live betting

Using Next Goal on-line tool, we can get the real probabilities for the first goal to be scored at the first 15min of the game. The results of the analysis are shown below

We have the following

  • To remain with 0 goals: 72.00% or the real odds are 1.39
  • To have more than 0 goals: 28.00% or the real odds are 3.57

William Hill's odds prices are 1.28 (or 78.12%) for to remain with 0 goals and 3.50 (or 28.57%) to have more than 0 goals.

As you can see, the numbers are close to each other, but the question is, which is the the exact moment during the game (1rts to 15min) where it is most likely to hit? 

In order to give the answer to the above question, we will proceed to the following anaysis. We will split the 15min into time periods of 3min.

  • Probabilities from 1rst To 3min of the game

  • Probabilities from 4th To 6th min of the game

  • Probabilities from 7th To 9th min of the game

  • Probabilities from 10th To 12th min of the game

  • Probabilities from 13th To 15th min of the game

 

From the above analysis, we see, that between 4-6min of the game, the probability 8.45% to have more than 0 goals is the highest.

So it is better to wait up to 6th min of the game before to place your bet. 

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