Southampton vs Manchester Utd

Barclay's Premier League on 20/09/2015

Sportsbook: William Hill

Market Category: Goal Time


Live betting in William Hill for the market "Match Goal - 1rst To 15th min", using Next Goal.

Analysis of the market and how to find the exact moment during the game where it is most likely to hit.

The specific market is shown below

Using Next Goal on-line tool, we can get the real probabilities for the first goal to be scored at the first 15min of the game. The results of the analysis are shown below

We have the following

  • To remain with 0 goals: 68.70% or the real odds are 1.45
  • To have more than 0 goals: 31.30% or the real odds are 3.19

William Hill's odds prices are 1.33 (or 75.18%) for to remain with 0 goals and 3.25 (or 30.76%) to have more than 0 goals.

As you can see, the numbers are close to each other, but the question is, which is the the exact moment during the game (1rts to 15min) where it is most likely to hit? 

In order to give the answer to the above question, we will proceed to the following anaysis. We will split the 15min into time periods of 1min (by inserting the elapsed time min by min (0-15min, 1-15min,..., 13-15min),.

  • Probabilities from 2nd To 15th min of the game



  • Probabilities from 14th To 15th min of the game

Following you can see a chart with the results of the specific analysis 

 From the above analysis, we see, that the punter must wait at least up to 7min of the game (81.44% to remain with 0 goals), before to place his bet. 

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