Half Time Real Probabilities using Next Goal Predictor

Next Goal Predictor is an online tool for more demanding users who want to compile their own in-play real probabilities, based on their own methodology:

• HTime probabilities to remain with current total goals (e.g. with 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc)
• HTime probabilities to have more than current total goals (e.g. more than 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc)
• HTime probabilities to have total current total goals (e.g. to have total 0 goals, 1 goals, 2 goals etc)

We use a data sample for both teams that consists of data from the last four (4) football seasons and data from the current season. Once each team has played more than ten (10) games in the current season, we drop the data from four years ago and only use data from the current and the last three (3) seasons.

You have choose to bet live on the game Burnley vs Ipswich Town.  Also, for our example, the game is going to be started in a minute and the exact score is still 0-0. We want to bet for Half Time:

• to remain with current goals ( no goal to be scored up to 45min)
• to have more than current goals (one or more goals to be scored in total)
• to have exactly 1 goal
• to have exactly 2 goals
• to have more than 2 goals in total

As a user, you must Select:

• The Historical database  (the number of past seasons data records) [Indicator 1]
• The game [Indicator 2]
• The Filter of data sample( One team as Home and the other as Away) [Indicator 2]

Also you must insert:

• the elapse time of the game [Indicator 5]
• the current total number of goals of the game [Indicator 4]

You get the following in-play real probabilities for the HTime:

• to remain with 0 goals ( no goal to be scored up to 45min) : 33.89%
• to have more than 0 goals (one or more goals to be scored in total): 66.11%
• to have total 1 goal: 36.67%
• to have total 2 goals: 18.33%
• to have more than 2 goals: 11.11%

From the above the most possible total number of goals are less than 1. If you sum

Prob (remain with 0 goals) + Prob (have total 1 goal) = Under1.5 = 70.56%

You can change the elapsed time accordingly to the real time of the game and you can get different in-play real probabilities, depending on the time and the total number of goals that you have inserted in Next Goal Predictor.