Preset: Double Value (DV)2018-10-09
Today I present you a new strategy that I, personally, have fallen in love with. It is called Double Value(DV).
In order to properly apply it, is essential to use the statistical analysis software that I use every day: Betpractice. If you have not subscribe yet, here is a link with all the information. The reason is that this software gives us a parameter called Real Odds, which is the result of analyzing the home matches as home, the away as a away and the matches between the two during the last seasons. The above statement provides us a theoretical percentage of success for a particular bet. With that said, we continue to the heart of the article: the strategy itself.
Idea of the strategy
Thanks to Betpractice, it is not difficult to find bets with value. These are the ones with odds higher in the betting house than the statistics indicate.
The idea of DV is to look for two bets with a minimum value of 10% and a high probability of success to later combine them. More specifically, 80% up. In order to find them, all we have to do is open Betpractice, go to "Search" tool and carry out the search of the day.
The selected markets in Search are all "Popular" and "Goal" markets.
So that you have a graphic example, here is an image of the potential matches for DV on 4/15/18:
As you can see, in theory all these events fulfill all the stipulated above. Too many, right?
Once we have this initial list of matches in our possession, we must apply a second filter to strengthen our selection a little bit more. We will only consider matches for DV that, in addition to all the above, agree with the following parameters:
Minimum match history: 50
Minimum value for this season of 5% (using Odds Compiler)
If this season does not yet have at least 10 games to compare, we have to manually check the last 5 for each team.
The above will strengthen our selection a bit more, but we have not finished yet. For this strategy to have long-term potential, it must meet a couple of other requirements.
The mathematical point of view
By taking two bets with a minimum value of 10% and combining them, the value of the combination itself will also increase. Take these two matches as an example:
According to BetPractice's real Odds, both bets have odds of 1.13 and 1.24 respectively. By combining them, the odds are multiplied, so the final odd (according to Real Odds) would be 1.13 * 1.24 = 1.4012. According to Betpractice, this combination has success probability of 71.3%.
However, if we now do the same numerical operation in a bookmaker (Betfair.com odds appear in the image), the result would be:
1.45 * 1.58 = 2.291 = 43.6% probability of success
The difference is remarkable. If you look at the previous image both bets had a value of 28.3% and 27.4%. However, our combined has a value of 63.5%.
It is in this difference between the probability of success according to Real Odds and the betting house (Betfair) where our edge or profitability resides.
Our profitability resides in the difference between probability of success of Real Odds and bookmaker's odds.
In order for DV to always have a minimum guaranteed value, it must always comply (when combined) with the following:
Minimum percentage(%) in Real Odds: 70%
Minimum bookmaker's odd : 1.70
This always ensures a value of at least 10% from the final combination. Therefore, not all betting pairs will be compatible since if they do not reach 70% success rate or 1.70 odd at the bookie, they can not be part of the selection.
With all the selection rules already explained, it is time to move on to stake managementwhich means how much we will invest in each bet. We will use (or rather we will adapt) a mathematical formula. The formula appears and explained in the following article (in English):
The Science of Calculating Winning and Losing Streaks
Here it is indicated that the maximum streak of successes or failures expected is calculated based on the following formula:
abs (ln (value1) / ln (value2))
Where value1 is the sample of matches that we expect to have in a certain period of time and value2 is our expected probability of failure.
Assuming we are going to have an average of 30 bets per month (which is the number I have roughly calculated), our value1 would be 420, the number of bets expected in a year. The figure of value2 is already known as well, since our strategy is designed in such a way that the minimum success rate is 70%.
The formula would be in such form:
abs (ln (360) / ln (0,3)) = 4,888
Rounding out, our maximum loss streak is 5 reds in a row. Therefore, we could divide our bankroll into 6 parts and, in theory, we could never stay ours with our bank to zero.
For example, if you had € 1000 of bankroll, you could put a fixed stake of € 166 and according to the previous formula you should not have the possibility of running out of money.
However, we can never take anything for granted and we must at all times cover ourselves against a possible (although as we have seen, unlikely) streak of consecutive failures. In order to avoid this, we have taken two measures:
Use a percentage of our bankroll instead of a fixed amount of money.
This percentage would be 100 out of 6, since we should never expect more than 5 failures in a row. Consequently, our stake would be 16% per stake truncating that division. To be precise, if during a day we lose our forecasts, the next we would go back with 16% of what we currently have. This makes losing from a losing streak less and less possible.
To put a second security measure, we will divide the previous number in half. This means that our final investment will be 8% of our funds, not 16, to tone it down even more if such a streak of failures is possible.
With stake management defined, everything is more than ready for you (with subscription to Betpractice) and can start putting your strategy into operation.
On the next link you can find a betting diary that I personally will carry out with all the necessary information and starting, from a very modest initial bankroll, of: € 200.
Diary of DV
I hope you like it!