Strategy: Lay 0-1 Score

Strategy: Lay 0-1 Score

2018-10-12
This strategy consists in betting against the exact score 0-1, to matches which have favorite the home team, tendency for both teams to score and over2.5FT if possible.

"Any over1.5FT would be a win for us on this strategy but also a 0-0 correct score or a home goal at any time. The only result which will make us lose, would be 0-1 and even then money losses can be minimized"



In order to find value matches to bet against 0-1 we will use Search Engine with the following parameters:

Market: Correct Score 0-1
Leagues: All, although the best one is USA-MLS
Probability: from 1% to 9%

* Sample: 100 or more matches.



We will order the results by the real odds column in such a way that we sort the least probable first. It means that the first matches are the least likely to be 0-1 so there is value to bet against 0-1



Once we have the results we should know for this time that using the strategy of LAY 0-1, the best matches are those with less possibility to be 0-1 and having the highest negative 
(red) value, because this will mean the odd of the bookmaker will be less than the Betpractice odd and in our case this is ideal.


"I recommend choosing games that have 100 or more record in their data sample taking into consideration both teams"





If we choose the Finnish KTP-HAKA game we see that the probability of 0-1 is 4% because it only happened in 4 out of 100 matches, the odd should be 25 but the bookmaker offers it at 14, so it is a VALUE bet.

"Lay 0-1 can only be done at an exchange betting house like Betfair Exchange, Orbitx Exchange ... It can not be done at Pinnacle, Bet365, Bwin or William Hill ..."


Once in the betting house we should bet against 0-1 with a RISK of 10% of our total Bank, although given the great success rate of the strategy we could keep a maximum risk of 30%, it is very rare that you play 4 games 0-1 when you use all the parameters in favor.

A 10% risk of our bank would allow us to lose up to 7 LAY 0-1 in a row, in order to stay with 50% of our bank in the end.

Another way to minimize risk is to wait until maximum 30 min and then bet on it when the odd is usually around 7 or 8 if the match is still 0-0.

In this strategy, STOPLOSS can be done if the away team scores first, but it must be taken into consideration that a 0-2 or a 1-1 would be a win for us, just as any home goal or any over1.5FT would win us the bet.

Backtesting with the teams of this match:
Total matches: 100
Matches won: 96
Lost matches: 4
Average fee: 11
Stake: € 11
Risk to installment 11: € 110 *
Gain -6.5% Betfair commission: € 10.45
Reversed: 100 games x € 110 = € 11,000
Won: 96 matches x € 10.45 = € 1003.2
Lost: 4 matches x € 110 = -440 €
Benefit: € 1003.2 - € 440 = € 563.2
Yield: 19.53%
* RISK is calculated by multiplying the stake by the Lay-1 Fee.

SUMAVERDES

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