Real Odds Validator

Real Odds Validator

2019-05-09
The concept
 
In betting industry you will find many betting predictions for soccer markets, telling you the probability to have a home win or an over2.5 etc. It has no sense to believe a prediction, if you don’t really know the success rate for it.

Oddsvalidator is a powerful tool to measure the success rate, in terms of final results, for every prediction made by Betpractice Real Odds. Knowing the success rate of real odds predictions, you actually validate the reliability of real odds and get long term profits.

We follow an example for the Spanish League Segunda Division based on data from season 2017/2018 following the steps below:
Step 1                   : SPA Segunda Division
Step 2                   : Analysis of entire league (there is also analysis by team)
Step 3                   : 2017-2018 (sample data from selected season)
Step 4                   : Market: FT Home win
Step 5                   : Results Constrains:
: Limitations for real odds: Between 1.00 and 10.00
: Results for every 0.05 points of real odds prices
: Limitations for success rate: Between 0% and 100%
 
Oddsvalidator summarizes real odds ranges of 0.05 points giving very useful information. 


Let’s have a close look at the validation of some odds ranges: 


Range 1: From 22 games with real odds between 1.91 and 1.95, the 11 games of them ended with home win as a final result, which mean success 50% (11/22=0.5).
               Reability of Real odds:
Predicted probability : 52.4% to 51.3%
Success rate : 50%
Comparison with book odds: In comparison with bet365 average odds, there is an average value price since «real odds < bet365»
Average yield: In terms of average yield, in comparison with bet365 there is a positive yield. More accurate yield prediction needs a backtesting procedure with System Hunter platform.
 
Range 2: From 23 games, 10 of them ended with home win as a final result, which mean success 43.48%.
                Reability of Real odds:
Predicted probability : 44.2% to 43.5%
Succeeded : 43.48%
Comparison with book odds: No value price since «real odds > bet365»
Average yield: Negative yield.
 
Range 3: From 25 games, 16 of them ended with home win as a final result, which mean success 64.00%.
               Reability of Real odds:
Predicted probability : 48.5% to 47.6%
Succeeded : 60.00%
Comparison with book odds: Medium value price since «real odds ≈ bet365»
Average yield: Positive yield.
 
Range 4: From 22 games 4 of them ended with home win as a final result, which mean success 43.48%.
               Reability of Real odds:
Predicted probability : 45.2% to 44.5%
Succeeded : 18.18%
Comparison with book odds: No value price since «real odds > bet365»
Average yield: Negative yield.
 
With OddsValidator we check real odds methodology in terms of final game results. This tool is a great opportunity to find out, at once, leagues or teams with odds ranges with high succeeded rates and positive yield in comparison to average bookmakers odds. It is also, the proper tool to make an initial plan for setting ranges of real odds, for further filter analysis in System Hunter Platform.

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