Methodology of Pre -Game Real Odds2017-09-17
We are going to show the methodology of website www.betpractice.com to calculate commercial “real” probabilities and “real” odds for betting markets of football games.
Betpractice Studio uses the assumptions below:
Let’s assume the game Arsenal vs Chelsea,
To calculate the probability for “Home win” we use three samples.
Sample 1: The number of Arsenal previous home games plus Chelsea previous away games
Sample 2: The number of Arsenal previous home wins
Sample 3: The number of Chelsea previous away losses
The probability for “Home wins” is:
“Home wins” = (sample 2 + sample 3) / (sample 1)
At the same way we calculate “Away wins”, “Draw”, “Under 2.5” etc.
Question: How many previous games?
Another question is how many previous games are you going to include in the above samples. Many people use the "form" of the team that usually means the last six games.
In Betpractice Studio this is not the case!
In the diagram below we show how betpractice studio assumes the number of previous games in the methodology of calculating betting odds.
Game Samples for Team Markets (match odds, Half time match odds etc):
For Team Markets we use game data from the last two seasons and games from the current season up to game number 10.
After game number 10 we use games from previous season plus games from the current season.
Goal & Score Markets:
Game Samples for Goal and Score Markets (Under 2.5, Over 1.5, Asian Handicap etc):
For Goal and Score Markets we use game data from the last four seasons and games from the current season up to game number 10.
After game number 10 we use games from last three seasons plus games from the current season.